NASDAQ

EXPECTATIONS

Between Wednesday & Thursday of last week sellers made three (failed) attempts at breaking 14250. Based on this, my baseline assumption is we explore the range above (14295-14730/14885-15270). Until we see directional flows above 14645 or below 14465, I want to attempt to trade toward 14585 with the expectation the market will gravitate here based on Friday’s buy deltas at 14580/590.

DAT PIFF

During Friday’s auction we saw two large buy deltas occur at 14580/590 while S&P concurrently traded 4286, a location that temporarily capped the auction. In my relatively short experience, I have noticed these buy deltas can be associated range bound activity and/or pinning a market. Why? No clue. Worth mentioning, about 15,000 lots were quickly sold into the bid between 4285-86 on this first touch (between 8-8:30am PT). Not worth mentioning however, I attempted this short — and while the trade moved about 9 points in my favor I didn’t take profit and ultimately stopped out (omly wun Jawn. yay.).

TRADE IDEAS

I think the open and IB period will be key. If we open below 14540, I think we can see a retest of the OVN low (513) which I will expect to bid and traverse the OVN balance toward 580-590 with a possible move above last week’s highs toward 640-650. If we open above 14560 and immediately bid beyond 595, I will be looking for a short setup around 640-650 to target 580 and 520.